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The countdown to the start of the 2021-22 college basketball season on November 9 begins, and ESPN.com’s panel of experts is making predictions for all of the country’s major leagues. We continue our series with the Pac-12 Conference after looking at Gonzaga and the best teams from the mid-major conferences (Atlantic 10, C-USA, Ivy, MAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, SoCon, Sun Belt, and WCC), followed by Memphis, Houston, and the AAC, as well as the Villanova-dominated Big East.
As March started last season, the UCLA Bruins were nothing more than a footnote. They had become a sensation by April. Mick Cronin and his team beat Michigan State in an exciting First Four game and rode that momentum all the way to the Final Four, where they were defeated by Gonzaga, who were then undefeated, in one of the greatest Final Four games ever. The Bruins and their supporters have their sights set on a record 12th national title, with the majority of their core returning to Westwood. Will this team, though, be consistent enough to get there? Will a still-talented Oregon team demonstrate its dominance in the Conference of Champions? What about USC, Arizona, and other interesting Pac-12 teams who aren’t going away quietly?
Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway, and Joe Lunardi, members of ESPN’s writing staff, assessed those stories, made forecasts, and offered their opinions on all of the Pac-12’s major problems.
Superlatives | Roundtable | Picks | Superlatives
Superlatives for the Pac-12 in 2021-22
Athlete of the Year
UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang
Newcomer of the Year is a prestigious award given to a newcomer
Marreon Jackson (Arizona State) Medcalf: Borzello: Arizona State’s Marreon Jackson Marreon Jackson (Arizona State), Marreon Jackson, Marreon Jackson, Marreon Jackson, Mar Lunardi: Arizona State’s Marreon Jackson
Writers’ roundtable for the Pac-12 in 2021-22
UCLA is expected to be rated No. 2 in the USA to begin the season, making a college basketball record 12th national title a realistic objective. How shocked would you be if Mick Cronin and his teammates won the championship on April 4 in New Orleans, and what is their greatest challenge?
National titles are the benchmark at UCLA. Is the Bruins’ team from 2021-22 in that category? Kirby Lee is a sports reporter for USA TODAY.
Medcalf: It doesn’t surprise me in the least. Johnny Juzang and Tyger Campbell, two important players from the Final Four squad, are all back, plus they’ve added five-star prospect Peyton Watson. UCLA, I believe, will capitalize on their NCAA tournament success. The Pac-12 will be a challenge, but it will also serve as excellent preparation for the playoffs.
At Pac-12 media day, I spoke with Mick Cronin and Juzang about the upcoming season, and they both stated that the exciting defeat to Gonzaga — one of the greatest games in NCAA tournament history — was still simply a loss to them. This year, they’ll be pushed by that finish. Butler’s run in 2009 seems similar to Gordon Hayward and Co.’s journey to the championship game a year later, when they fought Duke until the closing seconds. When you add a player like Myles Johnson to the UCLA roster — opponents hit only 44% of their shots inside the arc with the former Rutgers big man on the court last season, according to hooplens.com — anything seems conceivable for a team with few flaws.
The Bruins’ biggest challenge, I believe, will be continuing to compete as well as they did down the stretch throughout the season. It’s a great tale to reach the Final Four as an 11-seed, but it’s no way to live. After losing five of their last nine games, the Bruins were 17-8 entering the Pac-12 tournament, despite dealing with injuries throughout the season. They were hot at the perfect moment, but only UConn can win the championship that way. Similar inconsistencies may not have the same happy ending. However, after reaching the Final Four last year, all indications point to this squad continuing to improve.
Borzello: It wouldn’t come as a surprise. This is a club that was a 40-foot buzzer shot away from reaching the national title game, and it returns everyone while adding a top-15 prospect and expected lottery selection in Watson, as well as one of the greatest defensive players in the Big Ten in Johnson. I don’t think the sport is overrating the Bruins based simply on their NCAA tournament performance; they were in the middle of the Pac-12 championship battle until a shaky last two weeks of the regular season. In the NCAA tournament, something clicked for them. The squad was playing Mick Cronin’s style of defense, Tyger Campbell was keeping things moving, and the offense was centered on Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. creating plays. I don’t see any of that changing, and Watson and Johnson will bring new aspects to the table.
Carrying the enthusiasm from last March into this season will be UCLA’s greatest challenge. Throughout the NCAA tournament, the Bruins were playing with house money, with everyone cheering for the 11-seed to upset the big guys. UCLA is once again the hunted this season. The season begins with high hopes for Juzang, Jaquez, and the whole squad. The final three weeks of the 2020-21 season have a completely different feel to them. The Bruins will have to deal with the fact that they have a bullseye on their back.
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Gasaway: When we look at the question today, the October me will be shocked. With all due respect to Mr. Borzello, I have to question whether the Bruins are somewhat overrated as a result of their outstanding NCAA tournament performance. Be wary of the impact of recency. Fans of Alabama and Michigan can tell you how it seemed like UCLA would never make it to the Final Four. In the First Four, Michigan State took these men to overtime. Are we seriously selecting this team to win the national championship in 2022 if they lose that game and finish the season with five consecutive losses?
That’s me in October once again. I’m all in if it turns out Mick Cronin’s men in the field of 68 truly did see the light, and the historically (some would say supernaturally) precise 2-point jump-shooting against Gonzaga can be replaced with something more durable. (I predicted UCLA would win the conference.) The most difficult obstacle to overcome before I join that bandwagon is defense. Last season, the Bruins had a league-average D rating in Pac-12 play. If that changes, I’ll claim I’ve always believed in these people and that this discussion never took place.
Lunardi: The Bruins have a history of being overestimated heading into this season. Every year, a number of teams with better-than-expected NCAA tournament performance the previous season experience this. “Which is more trustworthy, three months of data or three weekends?” a statistician may question.
UCLA has earned its preseason poll place as a result of that finish and the large number of returnees. But that’s just the beginning. The Bruins will discover that getting back to the Final Four is considerably more difficult than getting there the first time.
Oregon has probably been the most reliable club in the conference. What stands out to you about the Ducks’ 2021-22 roster, which has a slew of new faces?
The Pac-12 is represented in the preseason Top 25 by Dana Altman and Oregon, who join UCLA. USA TODAY Sports’ Jayne Kamin-Oncea
Lunardi: Yes, there are new faces, but not where it counts. Dana Altman is Oregon’s rock, the main reason the Ducks have gone 132-66 in the Pac-12 in his ten seasons (by far the best mark in the conference). Altman wins big or little, quick or slow. He adjusts to the depth of skill on hand, and the Ducks are nearly usually at their best in March. By then, it wouldn’t surprise me if Oregon was back on top of the Pac-12 rankings.
Borzello: On this year’s roster, Dana Altman has legitimate size. He’s not afraid to use small-ball lineups, whether it’s Eric Williams and Eugene Omoruyi up front last season or Chandler Lawson and Shakur Juiston a few years ago. And with Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier capable of holding his own up front with Williams, he can do it again this season.
If Altman wants to play with a more conventional big man, he has lots of alternatives. Franck Kepnang, a 6-foot-11 forward, entered for the second half of the season and showed glimpses during Pac-12 play before scoring eight points off the bench in the NCAA tournament versus USC. Last season, N’Faly Dante, who is also 6-foot-11, started the first six games before injuring his ACL, averaging 8.2 points and 5.8 rebounds. Then there’s Nate Bittle, a five-star recruit who adds additional talent and shooting to the center position at 6-foot-11. Under Altman, Oregon will always be flexible, but this season the Ducks may be able to mix and match more successfully against larger teams.
Medcalf: The new faces, athleticism, and high potential aren’t exactly fresh. However, Oregon’s history indicates that when it has a senior captain who is respected by all members of the team, it performs at its best. In 2016-17, Dylan Ennis did it for the Final Four team. In his last years with the Ducks, Payton Pritchard did the same thing. Will Richardson, I believe, will play that position in this bunch. Richardson acknowledged during our conversation at Pac-12 media day that the team’s skill pool — five players on the roster averaged double digits last season — would force players to put their egos aside in order to share the ball. With a crew this large, that’s always a tough job. Dana Altman, on the other hand, has done it before. When he has a stalwart veteran to lead all of the talent on the court, his job is always made simpler. Richardson, I believe, is that player for the Ducks this season: there are a lot of moving pieces, but his experience will help this club find its stride early on.
Gasaway: Altman assembles his teams with players from various walks of life. He’s bringing back veterans from last year’s Ducks (Richardson, Williams and Dante). There are a number of highly regarded freshmen that will be entering the team (Bittle and Isaac Johnson). Guerrier, De’Vion Harmon from Oklahoma, and Jacob Young from Rutgers are among the major-conference transfers at UO. There’s even an option to transfer from a junior college (Rivaldo Soares). In terms of talent acquisition, the head coach has covered all the bases, which has worked out well for Oregon in the past.
Last season in Pac-12 play, the Ducks took care of the ball and lit up the nets from the perimeter while causing a ton of turnovers on defense — and Altman’s team needed those turnovers because this was a feast-or-famine defense. We’ll see whether this season’s players, with their diverse backgrounds, can match or outperform them.
Most forecasters had Arizona as a middle-of-the-pack choice. In Tommy Lloyd’s first season, will the Wildcats be on the right or wrong side of the bubble, and why?
In Tommy Lloyd’s first year, will Arizona see growth or simply growing pains? Arizona Athletics / Mike Christy
Gasaway: To put it another way, I fully anticipate to be writing about Lloyd and his guys in Bubble Watch by February. I don’t think Arizona will have clinched an NCAA bid by then, and I don’t think they’ll be out of the race for a place in the 68-team field. It’ll be a nail-biter. Arizona was better than most people thought last season — on a per-possession basis in the Pac-12, it was even better than UCLA — but four of the top six scorers are gone, and the transition to a new administration may take some time. Tucson fans should brace themselves for an entertaining and thrilling season on the cusp — which, it should be emphasized, is much preferable than being barred from the playoffs. The process of upgrading has already begun.
Arizona is one of the most interesting teams in the nation, but it’s also one of the most difficult to evaluate. The Wildcats have changed coaches and are still awaiting the findings of the independent investigation into their violations case. James Akinjo, Jemarl Baker, and Jordan Brown are difficult to replace. Azuolas Tubelis and Bennedict Mathurin, though, are two of the league’s most promising prospects on this year’s squad. Tubelis and Mathurin, who both competed in the FIBA Under-19 World Championships with Canada’s Under-19 team, are expected to make major improvements this season.
If I had to make a prediction right now, I’d choose Arizona to finish just outside the 68-team field. Tommy Lloyd was a member of one of America’s best coaching staffs at Gonzaga. However, he will have a steep learning curve as he transitions from assistant to head coach. Many people anticipated Mike Hopkins, who left Jim Boeheim’s staff in 2017-18, to have a fantastic season at Washington. Hopkins, on the other hand, has experienced more setbacks than triumphs. Lloyd may face a similar obstacle.
Borzello: They have the potential to reach the NCAA tournament, and the assumption inside the school is that they will compete for a bid in their first season. There will be some growing pains, particularly with the switch from Sean Miller’s set-based half-court approach to Tommy Lloyd’s quicker, more European-style attack. Despite the NCAA’s shadow over Tucson in recent years, Miller didn’t leave Lloyd with an empty cupboard; four players return from a squad that went 17-9 overall and sixth in the Pac-12 last season, and finished within the top 30 at KenPom. Arizona would have been on Selection Sunday if it hadn’t been for a postseason prohibition.
Tubelis should fit in nicely with the new offense, while Mathurin is a possible first-round selection. Kim Aiken Jr., Pelle Larsson, Justin Kier, and Oumar Ballo were among the four transfers signed by Lloyd. The point guard position will be crucial. For the Wildcats, Kerr Kriisa will be the one with the ball in his hands. The Wildcats will participate in the NCAA tournament if he can get the offense rolling soon.
Lunardi: The only thing I’m certain of is that Arizona will be on the verge of becoming a state. It’s a fool’s errand to predict which team will win without watching them play. Given Tommy Lloyd’s and his staff’s probable move to the Pac-12 (not to mention his own as a head coach), I believe the Wildcats will end up in the NIT.
Which Pac-12 team isn’t getting nearly enough attention heading into 2021-22?
Washington State basketball is back on the map thanks to Kyle Smith and Noah Williams. Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire photo
Medcalf: Every season, I believe Colorado is the conventional response. Tad Boyle is in his 12th season with the Colorado Buffaloes. He’s won 20 games or more eight times. He’s only had one losing season in his career. McKinley Wright IV is no longer alive. Boyle’s initiative has suffered a major setback. He is, however, used to losing important players and rebounding. Colorado will still be a competitive team, based on his track record of consistency. If Jabari Walker and Evan Battey, who seemed to have slimmed down when I saw him at Pac-12 media day, can anchor one of the league’s top frontcourts, Colorado has a chance to put together another winning season and sneak into the playoffs under Boyle.
Borzello: I’m going to vote for Washington State. Kyle Smith led the Cougars to their first season above.500 since 2012, and they won seven Pac-12 games, the most in the conference since 2015. They defeated Oregon on the road, UCLA at home, and finished the regular season with a 5-5 record. Noah Williams, who had 32 and 40 points in back-to-back games in late February, is one of four starters returning.
However, the immigrants are at the heart of most of the optimism in Pullman. After departing South Alabama last spring, Michael Flowers was one of the best scorers in the transfer portal, while UC San Diego transfer Tyrell Roberts averaged more over 19 points per game two seasons ago. Isaac Bonton, a second-team All-Pac-12 pick last season, should be able to be replaced by those two. In 2020-21, Washington State had one of the league’s top defensive teams, but the Cougars will need to improve offensively if they want to compete in the playoffs.
Borzello snatched my first choice, Gasaway. So I’ll stick to Plan B and give some love to USC. I mean, who needs Evan Mobley? Actually, he would be very useful. Isaiah Mobley, Ethan Anderson, Drew Peterson, and Isaiah White are among the returning veterans in coach Andy Enfield’s rotation, despite the absence of Mobley and Tahj Eaddy. When you add in transfers Boogie Ellis (Memphis) and Joshua Morgan (Long Beach), you have a formidable nucleus. I predicted the Trojans to finish second in the Pac-12, and we don’t hear nearly enough about a team that might challenge UCLA for the championship.
Lunardi: Let’s speak about Washington State basketball a little bit more. Kyle Smith has accomplished great things in only three seasons, and his squad this year is no worse than a bubble team. We must recall how terrible this program was under Ernie Kent, particularly on defense. For the first time since 2008 (14 years and three coaches ago! ), Wazzu is relevant and in contention for an NCAA berth under Smith.
Order of finish for the Pac-12 in 2021-22
ESPN’s opinion:
1. University of California, Los Angeles 2. The state of Oregon 3. University of Southern California Arizona is number four. 5. Arizona State University Washington State is ranked sixth. Colorado is number seven. 8. Oregon State University Stanford is number nine. Utah is number ten (tie 10th) Washington, D.C. (tie 10th) Cal is 12 years old.
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